Arşiv Salı, 17 Haziran 2003 görüntüleniyor
Güneş aktivite raporu
Bu raporda bahsedilen herhangi bir güneş lekesi, Uzay Hava Tahmin Merkezi (SWPC) tarafından uygulanan bir ölçekleme faktörüne sahiptir. SWPC ölçekleme faktörü nedeniyle güneş lekeleri, bilimsel kalitedeki verilere göre %42 daha küçük olarak rapor edilmektedir. Ölçekleme faktörü, arşivlenmiş güneş lekesi verilerimizden kaldırılmıştır, bu da gerçek fiziksel birimleri yansıtmaktadır.
Solar-Jeofizik Aktivite Raporu 2003 Jun 17 2200 UTC
NOAA © SWPC tarafından hazırlanmış ve SpaceWeatherLive.com tarafından işlenmiştir.USAF/NOAA Ortak Güneş ve Jeofizik Aktivite Raporu
SDF Numarası 168, 17 Jun 2003 üzerinden 2200Z'de Verildi
IA. 16-2100Z'den 17-2100Z'ye Solar Aktif Bölgelerin ve Aktivitenin Analizi
Solar activity was at low levels. The largest flare
was a C2 flare at 0222 UTC from Region 386 (S07E58). This region
continues to increase in area coverage as it rotates further onto
the visible disk. Magnetic analysis indicates a beta-gamma
magnetic configuration. Region 380 (S15W64) continues a its gradual
decay in area and now has a beta magnetic configuration.
IB. Güneş Aktivitesi Tahmini
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels with a chance of isolated high level
activity. Region 386 has the potential for major flare activity.
IIA. Jeofiziksel Aktivite Özeti 16-2100Z ila 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at active to major storm levels. A
six-hour period of southward Bz, from 06 - 09 UTC combined with
elevated solar wind speed near 510 km/s produced minor and major
storm levels.
IIB. Jeofiziksel Aktivite Tahmini
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels. A weak CME shock
is possible late on day one with isolated minor storm levels
possible. High speed stream effects are expected on day two and day
three with minor storm levels possible.
III. Olay Olasılıkları 18 Jun ila 20 Jun
| M Sınıfı | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| X Sınıfı | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | green
|
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Akı
Gözlemlendi 17 Jun 122
Tahmin edildi 18 Jun-20 Jun 125/120/120
90 Günlük Ortalama 17 Jun 125
V. Jeomanyetik A Endeksi
Gözlemlendi Afr/Ap 16 Jun 020/032
Tahmini Afr/Ap 17 Jun 040/050
Tahmin edildi Afr/Ap 18 Jun-20 Jun 020/030-020/030-020/025
VI. Jeomanyetik Aktivite Olasılıkları 18 Jun ila 20 Jun
| A. Orta Enlemler |
| Aktif | 35% | 40% | 40% |
| Küçük fırtına | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Büyük-şiddetli fırtına | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Yüksek Enlemler |
| Aktif | 40% | 50% | 50% |
| Küçük fırtına | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Büyük-şiddetli fırtına | 10% | 15% | 15% |
VII Comment:
K-Indices:
On 16 June, it was determined that a scaling problem exists with the H-trace on the Boulder magnetometer instrument. While this problem, and its fix are being investigated the primary instrument for Boulder K-indices has been switched to the Boulder USGS (via Domsat) magnetometer, effective 1500 UTC on 16 June.
GOES Protons:
To ensure continued operational monitoring of important energetic particle data, it is necessary to reassign primary/secondary designations for the GOES Space Environment Monitor (SEM) detectors. Beginning 1700 UTC on June 18, GOES 11 (105W) will become the primary satellite for protons. GOES 12 will continue as the primary satellite for magnetometer, X-ray, and electron measurements. GOES 10 (135W) will be the secondary satellite for all SEM sensors - magnetometer, X-ray, and energetic particles. Because of the degraded state of the proton data on GOES-10, its designation as the secondary source for proton data is a short-term solution. More permanent solutions have been identified and are being evaluated. Users will be notified when we define and schedule a permanent fix. Further details can be found at http://www.sec.noaa.gov/GOES.html.
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