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SIDC'den güneş ve jeomanyetik aktivite hakkında günlük bülten

Yayınlandı: 2025 Nov 06 1254 UTC

SIDC Tahmini

Güneş patlamaları

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Jeomanyetizma

Major (ISES: Severe) magstorm expected (A>=100 or K>=7)

Güneş protonları

Quiet

	10cm akı	Ap
06 Nov 2025	156	024
07 Nov 2025	160	041
08 Nov 2025	164	013

Güneş Aktif Bölgeleri ve parlama

Solar flaring activity was high over the past 24 hours, with 2 M-class flares identified. The largest flare was a M8.6 flare (SIDC Flare 5941) peaking on November 05 at 22:07 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 687 (NOAA Active Region 4274). The second largest flare was an M1.1 flare (SIDC Flare 5950) peaking on November 06 at 04:31 UTC and was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 689 (NOAA Active Region 4276). A total of 7 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. SIDC Sunspot Group 687 (NOAA Active Region 4274) is the largest and most magnetically complex (Beta-Gamma-Delta) region on disk. SIDC Sunspot Group 689 (NOAA Active Region 4276) has rotated over the east limb onto the visible disk. Both these regions produced most of the flaring activity in the last 24 hours. Solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares very likely and a small chance for X-class flares.

Koronal Kütle Atılımı

A halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) (SIDC CME 594) was detected in SOHO/LASCO-C2 data around 11:00 UTC on November 05. This CME is likely associated with a M7.4 flare (SIDC 5938) peaking on November 05 at 11:18 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 687 (NOAA Active Region 4274). This CME has an estimated speed of around 844 km/s. The CME is expected to arrive at Earth at 18:05 on November 07. A second halo CME (SIDC CME 595) was detected in SOHO/LASCO-C2 data around 22:12 UTC on November 05. This CME is likely associated with a M8.6 flare (SIDC Flare 5941) peaking on November 05 at 22:07 UTC, which was also produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 687 (NOAA Active Region 4274). This CME has an estimated speed of around 844 km/s. The CME is expected to arrive at Earth at 05:00 UTC on November 09.

Güneş rüzgarı

Over the past 24 hours, the Earth came under the influence of an ICME associated with a CME that left the Sun on November 03. The solar wind speed started the reporting period around 350 km/s and gradually started to increase at 06:30 UTC on November 06 to a speed around 549 km/s. The total interplanetary magnetic field ranged from 5 to 24 nT, with the Bz reaching a minimum of -16 nT. The phi-angle was mainly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun), with periods in the negative sector. In the next 24 hours, the solar wind conditions are expected to become more disturbed due to the arrival of a high-speed stream associated with SIDC Coronal Hole 116 and the expected and the expected arrival of a CME (SIDC CME 593) that left the Sun on November 04.

Jeomanyetizma

The geomagnetic conditions reached major storm levels (Kp 7-) globally and minor storm level (K BEL 5) locally. Moderate to major storm conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.

Proton akı seviyeleri

The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux became elevated but has remained below the 10 pfu threshold level and is expected to remain below the threshold for the next 24 hours.

Jeostatik yörüngedeki elektron akıları

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-18 and GOES-19 satellites, were below the 1000 pfu threshold in the last 24 hours. The 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain below the threshold during the next 24 hour. The 24-hour electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain at normal levels over the next 24 hours.

Bugünün tahmini uluslararası güneş lekesi sayısı (ISN): 1 Tahmini gunes lekesi sayisi, 2 Istasyon sayisi.

05 Nov 2025 için güneş endeksleri

Kurt numarası Catania	085
10cm güneş akısı	147
AK Chambon La Forêt	057
AK Wingst	027
Tahmini Ap	029
Tahmini uluslararası güneş lekesi sayısı	078 - 19 istasyonlarına göre

Dikkat çeken olayların özeti

Güneş Etkileri Veri Analiz Merkezi tarafından sağlanmıştır© - SIDC - SpaceWeatherLive tarafından işlendi

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