Перегляд архіву субота, 26 жовтня 2013

Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2013 Oct 26 1346 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

Major flares expected (X-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Сонячні протони

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10 см потік	Ap
26 Oct 2013	161	011
27 Oct 2013	161	014
28 Oct 2013	161	028

Бюлетень

There were one X flare, six M flares, and thirteen C flares on the Sun in the past 24 hours. The X2.1 flare peaked at 15:03 UT on October 25 and was associated with a radio Type II burst with an estimated shock speed of 2078 km/s at Sagamore Hill. All M and X flares and five C flares were produced by beta-gamma-delta region NOAA AR 11882. Five C flares were released by beta-gamma-delta region AR 11875, and one C flare each by AR 11869, AR 11874 and beta-gamma region AR 11877. Type II bursts were also registered in association with the C2.3 flare released by AR 11875 peaking at 13:37 UT on October 25 (estimated shock speed 1083 km/s by Sagamore Hill) and the M1.5 flare released by AR 11882 peaking at 9:37 UT on October 26 (estimated shock speed 1275 km/s by San Vito). In the next 48 hours, X flares are possible, especially from NOAA AR 11882. There is a substantial risk of halo CMEs and the warning condition for proton storms remains valid. Several CMEs were ejected on October 25 and 26, among which two frontsided halo CMEs. The first halo CME was first observed by LASCO C2 at 8:24 UT on October 25 and was associated to the X1.7 flare. The second halo CME was first observed by LASCO C2 at 15:12 UT on October 25 and was associated with the X2.1 flare. Both CMEs are expected to arrive on October 28. Geomagnetic activity was at quiet levels (K Dourbes between 0 and 3; NOAA Kp between 0 and 2) during the past 24 hours. Active conditions (K Dourbes = 4) are expected for the second half of October 26, due to the expected arrival of the October 22 (M4.2) CME. Quiet conditions are expected on October 27, and minor storm conditions are expected on October 27 due to the expected merged arrival of several CMEs (among which the two halo CMEs of October 25).

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 085, за даними 10 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 25 Oct 2013

Число Вольфа, Катанія	142
Сонячний потік 10 см	161
AK Chambon La Forêt	007
AK Wingst	002
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	002
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	096 - За даними 17 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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