Перегляд архіву середа, 25 грудня 2013

Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2013 Dec 25 1246 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10 см потік	Ap
25 Dec 2013	123	023
26 Dec 2013	125	015
27 Dec 2013	128	007

Бюлетень

There were eight C flares on the Sun during the past 24 hours, released by NOAA AR 11928 and 11936. The brightest one was a C4.7 flare from NOAA AR 11928 peaking at 06:39 UT on December 25. In the next 48 hours, the probability for C flares is high (around 70%) and for M flares around 25%, mainly from NOAA AR 11928 and 11936. Solar wind speed as observed by ACE suddenly increased from about 290 to 320 km/s around 20:40 UT on December 24, accompanied by a rise in solar wind density. Since then, the magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field has gradually increased from about 3 to about 12 nT and its phi angle behaved chaotically until 4:00 UT on December 25, when it started increasing linearly over time. These measurements are consistent with the arrival of the flux robe of an unidentified CME around 4h UT on December 25, preceded by a shock which started around 20:40 UT on December 24. Though Bz is having extended periods of -10 nT, geomagnetic activity has remained quiet over the past 24 hours (NOAA Kp between 0 and 3). Due to the expected arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream, quiet to active geomagnetic conditions are expected in the second half of December 25 and on December 26, with a chance of minor storm excursions. Quiet to active conditions are likely on December 27.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 070, за даними 11 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 24 Dec 2013

Число Вольфа, Катанія	///
Сонячний потік 10 см	128
AK Chambon La Forêt	007
AK Wingst	002
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	002
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	078 - За даними 11 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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