Перегляд архіву середа, 15 січня 2014

Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2014 Jan 15 1241 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Геомагнетизм

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10 см потік	Ap
15 Jan 2014	137	004
16 Jan 2014	131	007
17 Jan 2014	125	006

Бюлетень

The flaring activity is at the low C-class level. The last C-class flare reported was C3.2 flare which peaked at 16:04 UT, on January 14. The flare originated from the Catania sunspot group 98 (NOAA AR 1944). The background X-ray flux has high B-level, so we expect C-class flares, while M-class flares are not probable. The Catania sunspot group 98 (NOAA AR 1944) just rotated behind the West solar limb and we maintain the warning condition for a proton event for the following 24 hours. The eruption, originating from the Catania sunspot group 9 (NOAA AR 1950) at about 08:30 UT on January 14, was accompanied by coronal dimming, EIT wave and a post- eruption arcade observed by SDO/AIA. Due to data gap the associated partial halo CME was first seen in the SOHO/LASCO C2 field of view only at the height of about 4.5 solar radii, at 11:36 UT on January 14. The CME had a width of about 180 degrees and approximate speed of 400 km/s. The bulk of the CME mass was directed somewhat northward of the Sun-Earth line and we expect at least the glancing blow from the associated CME-driven shock wave, on January 18. The solar wind speed is still slowly decreasing and its current value is about 500 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field is stable with the magnitude between 2 and 3 nT. The geomagnetic conditions are currently quiet and expected to remain so in the following 24 hours.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 066, за даними 08 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 14 Jan 2014

Число Вольфа, Катанія	///
Сонячний потік 10 см	137
AK Chambon La Forêt	012
AK Wingst	012
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	012
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	070 - За даними 11 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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