Перегляд архіву четвер, 22 травня 2014

Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2014 May 22 1243 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10 см потік	Ap
22 May 2014	111	015
23 May 2014	113	014
24 May 2014	114	007

Бюлетень

There was one C6.4 flare during the past 24 hours, released by NOAA AR 12072 with peak time at 03:10 UT on May 22. No new CMEs were observed. In the next 48 hours, the probability for C flares is high (85%, from NOAA AR 12071, 12072, 12073, and 12066) and for M flares around 20%, especially from NOAA AR 12071 and 12072. Around 19h UT on May 21, the phi angle of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) as observed by ACE changed from positive (away) to negative (toward), indicating an expected sector boundary crossing. At the same time, the magnitude of the IMF which had been fairly constant between 4 and 5 nT started fluctuating in a generally rising trend with current values reaching 8 nT. Over the last 24 hours, the solar wind speed was steady and low around 320 km/s until 9h UT on May 22, when it started increasing, probably due to the expected arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream. Current values lie around 370 km/s. Over the past 24 hours, geomagnetic conditions were quiet (K Dourbes between 0 and 2; NOAA Kp between 0 and 2). As an effect of the sector boundary crossing and the high speed stream arrival, quiet geomagnetic levels (K Dourbes < 4) with active periods (K Dourbes = 4) are possible on May 22 and 23. Quiet conditions are expected on May 24, with a slight chance for active conditions in case the Earth suffers a glancing blow from the CME of May 21.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 047, за даними 16 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 21 May 2014

Число Вольфа, Катанія	101
Сонячний потік 10 см	114
AK Chambon La Forêt	008
AK Wingst	002
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	002
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	058 - За даними 28 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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