Перегляд архіву пʼятниця, 13 червня 2014

Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2014 Jun 13 1245 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

Major flares expected (X-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

Сонячні протони

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10 см потік	Ap
13 Jun 2014	174	007
14 Jun 2014	168	006
15 Jun 2014	160	007

Бюлетень

Solar activity is still high with five M-class flares reported during last 24 hours. The strongest observed flare was the complex, long duration M3.1 flare (peaking at 22:16 UT) on June 12. The flare originated from the Catania sunspot group 76 (NOAA AR 2085) and was associated with an EIT wave and type II radio burst (gives indication on the shock wave speed of about 1700 km/s). The associated partial halo CME was first seen in the SOHO/LASCO C2 field of view at 22:12 UT. The angular width of the CME was about 200 degrees and the projected plane of the sky speed was 600 km/s (as reported by the CACTUS software). The bulk of the CME mass was ejected south-west from the Sun-Earth line and possibly, but not very probably the glancing blow from the CME-driven shock wave could arrive at the Earth in the evening of June 15. The M2.7 flare (peaking at 10:21 UT) on June 12 was associated with narrow CME first seen in the SOHO/LASCO C2 field of view at 10:48 UT. This CME will not arrive at the Earth. We expect C-class, M-class and X-class flares in the coming hours. Due to the, close to the west solar limb, position of the Catania sunspot groups 69 and 76 (NOAA AR 2080 and 2085, respectively) we maintain the warning condition for a proton event. The Earth is currently inside a slow solar wind (350 km/s), and the interplanetary magnetic field magnitude is about 6nT. The geomagnetic conditions are at the moment quiet. The glancing blow associated with the halo CME from June 10 is expected to arrive at the Earth today, and it might result in unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 126, за даними 22 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 12 Jun 2014

Число Вольфа, Катанія	221
Сонячний потік 10 см	175
AK Chambon La Forêt	008
AK Wingst	003
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	003
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	135 - За даними 31 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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