Перегляд архіву неділя, 15 червня 2014

Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2014 Jun 15 1436 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10 см потік	Ap
15 Jun 2014	148	008
16 Jun 2014	145	005
17 Jun 2014	142	007

Бюлетень

Several C-class and two M-class flares were reported in last 24 hours. The strongest one was the impulsive M1.4 flare which peaked at 19:29 UT on June 14. The flare originated from the active region just behind the east solar limb and was associated with the type II radio burst (indicating the shock wave speed of about 400 km/s). The associated CME was first seen in the SOHO/LASCO C2 field of view at 19:48 UT and had projected plane of the sky speed of about 600 km/s. The angular width of the CME was about 100 degrees and the bulk of the CME mass was directed south-east from the Sun- Earth line, therefore we do not expect this CME to arrive at the Earth. The C9.0 flare (peaked at 20:17 UT) on June 13 which originated from the Catania sunspot group 81 (NOAA AR 2087) was associated with narrow CME first seen in the SOHO/LASCO C2 field of view at 20:36 UT. We expect C-class and possibly also M-class flares in the coming hours. The solar wind speed is still about 400 km/s, and the interplanetary magnetic field magnitude has presently value of about 5 nT. Late today we expect the arrival of the glancing blow from the CME-driven shock wave, associated with a partial halo CME from June 12. The arrival of the fast flow associated with the small low latitude coronal hole (between S20 and S40) which reached the central meridian late on June 12, might be expected early tomorrow (June 16). Arrival of both, CME-driven shock wave and the fast flow is possible but not very probable. The geomagnetic conditions are quiet and expect to remain so in the coming hours.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 056, за даними 13 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 14 Jun 2014

Число Вольфа, Катанія	///
Сонячний потік 10 см	153
AK Chambon La Forêt	008
AK Wingst	010
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	008
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	097 - За даними 18 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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