Перегляд архіву субота, 2 серпня 2014

Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2014 Aug 02 1235 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10 см потік	Ap
02 Aug 2014	176	011
03 Aug 2014	182	007
04 Aug 2014	186	010

Бюлетень

There are currently 9 sunspot regions on the solar disk. NOAA 2130 produced an M2 flare peaking at 14:48UT, and NOAA 2127 was the source of an M1.5 flare peaking at 18:13UT. The CME associated to this flaring activity was first observed by SOHO/LASCO at 18:36UT. This CME had a true speed of about 800 km/s, but the bulk was directed to the SE. Nonetheless, difference imagery detected the outline of a faint halo to the WSW, and was a near full halo as seen from the STEREO-A vantage point. Hence, a glancing blow of this CME can not be excluded and could impact Earth in the afternoon of 4 August. NOAA 2127, 2130 and 2132 still have areas with some mixed magnetic polarity. The CME associated to the 1 August (10:15UT) filament eruption, which took place in the same location as the 30 July filament eruption, was directed mainly to the north. It does not seem to have an Earth-directed component despite its proximity to the disk's center. Two 25-degrees long filaments in the NE and SW quadrant remained stable. C-class flaring is expected, with a chance for an M-class flare. Solar wind speed increased from about 350 km/s to values between 400-450 km/s. Bz oscillated between -10 and +10 nT. Local geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled, with Kp briefly reaching active levels just before midnight. No obvious signature from the CME associated to the 30 July filament eruption has been observed so far in the solar wind parameters. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled, with locally a chance on active conditions as the solar wind may still be modulated by the 30 July CME (2 August) and the influence of a coronal hole stream (4 August).

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 123, за даними 12 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 01 Aug 2014

Число Вольфа, Катанія	///
Сонячний потік 10 см	168
AK Chambon La Forêt	021
AK Wingst	012
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	013
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	119 - За даними 20 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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