Перегляд архіву четвер, 9 жовтня 2014

Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2014 Oct 09 1335 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10 см потік	Ap
09 Oct 2014	126	020
10 Oct 2014	127	010
11 Oct 2014	125	008

Бюлетень

During last 24 hours 3 M-class and 11 C-class flares were reported, all originating from the Catania sunspot group 67 (NOAA AR 2182) which has rather simple, beta configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. The strongest flare observed was the M1.4 flare which peaked at 01:58 UT this morning. The flare was associated with the coronal wave and possibly also CME (it will be confirmed once SOHO LASCO and STEREO coronagraph data become available). We expect flaring activity of the C-class and possibly also of the M-class level. Since the source of the recent flaring activity, Catania sunspot group 67 (NOAA AR 2182) is situated rather close to the west solar limb (about S16 W49), we issue warning conditions for a proton event. The solar wind speed is still rather low and it is fluctuating around 350 km/s. Due to the sector change, observed at about 05:30 UT on October 08, the interplanetary magnetic field magnitude is elevated and amounts about 10 nT. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field is fluctuating with rather long intervals of its negative value (lowest recorded value was about -8 nT). Due to the negative intervals of the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field we had unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions (K=4 reported by local station at Dourbes and Kp=4 reported by NOAA) during past 24 hours and we expect such geomagnetic conditions to continue in the coming hours.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 049, за даними 15 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 08 Oct 2014

Число Вольфа, Катанія	127
Сонячний потік 10 см	126
AK Chambon La Forêt	021
AK Wingst	010
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	009
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	058 - За даними 19 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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