Перегляд архіву четвер, 13 листопада 2014

Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2014 Nov 13 1317 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10 см потік	Ap
13 Nov 2014	151	011
14 Nov 2014	160	007
15 Nov 2014	165	014

Бюлетень

The strongest flare reported in last 24 hours was a C8.4 flare on November 13 (peaking at 06:07 UT) probably originated from the NOAA AR 2209 which is just rotating to the visible side of the Sun. Due to the gap in the coronagraph data, it is not clear if this flare was associated with the CME. However, since the source region of the possible eruption would be behind the solar limb the CME would not be Earth-directed. The NOAA AR 2205 is currently situated in the western solar hemisphere. Although the region shows signs of decay (decrease in the area and number of sunspots), it still has beta-gamma configuration of its photospehric magnetic field. Therefore, we expect flaring activity of the C-class and M-class level from this active region, from the constantly growing NOAA AR 2208 and the NOAA AR 2209 currently at the east solar limb. Due to the position of the NOAA AR 2205, a major eruption from this active region may lead to a proton event, so we maintain the warning conditions for a proton event. The solar wind speed is fluctuating between 450 and 500 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude is about 6 nT. Rather extended low latitude coronal hole (between N12 and N60) reached the central meridian this morning. The arrival of the fast flow associated with this coronal hole is expected late on November 15 or early on November 16, and it could induce unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions. Currently, the geomagnetic conditions are quiet to unsettled and expected to remain so in the coming hours.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 085, за даними 13 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 12 Nov 2014

Число Вольфа, Катанія	///
Сонячний потік 10 см	153
AK Chambon La Forêt	010
AK Wingst	010
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	009
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	066 - За даними 12 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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