Перегляд архіву середа, 11 лютого 2015

Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2015 Feb 11 1241 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10 см потік	Ap
11 Feb 2015	138	007
12 Feb 2015	135	019
13 Feb 2015	132	011

Бюлетень

Solar flaring activity was quiet. There were several small C-class flares in the past 24 hours, largely from AR 2282 located in the Eastern hemisphere (E43). AR 2282 produced the largest flare, a C1.5 class flare on February 10, 2015 near 14:06 UTC. Previously active NOAA AR 2277 has moved onto the Western hemisphere limb. NOAA ARs 2280 and 2281 appear stable. All ARs are largelly stable with small amounts of flux emergence. There is a large filament located between S50E20 and S10W50, however this has remained stable. Flaring is expected to continue at the C-class level with the possibility of an M-class flare. No Earth directed CMEs have been observed. The solar wind speed has been roughly constant with small fluctuations around 400 km/s. The total magnetic field has been stable around 6 nT, however the Bz component has been variable, ranging between +5 and -5 nT. Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (NOAA Kp 1-3, local K Dourbes 1-2). Slightly enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to persist and possibly enhanced in 12-24 hours if the CME/shock front produced at 23:24 UT on 2015-Feb-09 interacts with the Earth. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled with an isolated active period possible.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 044, за даними 09 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 10 Feb 2015

Число Вольфа, Катанія	074
Сонячний потік 10 см	141
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	009
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	007
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	059 - За даними 16 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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