Перегляд архіву пʼятниця, 13 лютого 2015

Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2015 Feb 13 1254 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10 см потік	Ap
13 Feb 2015	126	008
14 Feb 2015	125	004
15 Feb 2015	126	005

Бюлетень

Over the past 24 hours there were several B class flares and one C class flare. Most activity occurred in (Active Region) AR 2282 located close to the center of the solar disk (E10). AR 2282 produced the largest flare, a C1.0 class flare on 2015-Feb-12 peaking at 14:18 UTC. Previously active NOAA AR 2280 has moved on to the Western hemisphere limb. NOAA ARs 2280, 2281 and 2282 all appear stable, with small amounts of flux emergence. AR 2283 emerged near disk center, and may be the source of future activity. There is a large filament located between S40W02 and S10W90, however this has remained, and appears, stable. Flaring is expected to continue at the B-class level with a possibility of C-class flares. A CME with a velocity of 602 km /s (measured by CACTUS) was observed off of the Eastern limb on 2015-Feb-13 at 04:36 UTC. The source is believed to be back sided. The solar wind speed has remained stable over the past 24 hours around 350 km /s. The total magnetic field has been stable around 6 nT, and the Bz component has changed from largely negative to largely positive. The Bz has ranged between +6 and -6 nT over the past 24 hours. Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to moderate over the past 24 hours (NOAA Kp 0-2, local K Dourbes 0-3). A large transient coronal hole is currently centered at W25, as this rotates further into the Western hemisphere it may produce enhanced solar wind speeds. Solar wind conditions have been quiet, which is expected to persist. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled with an isolated active period possible.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 051, за даними 15 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 12 Feb 2015

Число Вольфа, Катанія	///
Сонячний потік 10 см	128
AK Chambon La Forêt	006
AK Wingst	005
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	004
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	037 - За даними 18 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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