Перегляд архіву неділя, 15 березня 2015

Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2015 Mar 15 1224 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10 см потік	Ap
15 Mar 2015	116	008
16 Mar 2015	115	010
17 Mar 2015	115	010

Бюлетень

Over the past 24 hours there were several C-class flares and 1 M-class flare which were produced by NOAA AR (Active Region) 2297, which is currently located at S15W25, and is classified as a Beta-Gamma-Delta region under the Mount Wilson magnetic classification system. The largest flare recorded over the past 24 hours, produced by AR 2297, was an M1.0 flare on 2015-Mar-15 peaking at 09:40UT. ARs 2297 and 2299, have shown little magnetic evolution with a small amount of flux emergence, which may lead to future eruptions. AR 2301, which emerged near disk center on 2015-Mar-14, has shown evidence of a small amount of flux emergence, but has remained small. A partial halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was reported by CACTus and first seen in LASCO/C2 images at 02:00UT, this CME was related to a C9.1 flare from NOAA AR 2297 peaking at 02:13UT, see below for details. There is a large filament located between S15W90 and S50W05, however this has remained, and appears, stable. The solar wind speed has decreased over the past 24 hours from 350 km/s to 300 km/s. The total magnetic field has remained roughly constant around 6 nT, and the Bz component has changed from positive (around +5 nT) to negative (around -3 nT) over the past 24 hours. Geomagnetic conditions ranged between Kp index 1-3 (NOAA) and local K index 1-3 (Dourbes) over the past 24 hours. A small shock front was observed by the ACE satellite at 21:00 UT on 2015-Mar-14. A partial halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was reported by CACTus and first seen in LASCO/C2 images at 02:00UT, produced by AR 2297. This CME was related to a C9.1 flare from NOAA 2297 peaking at 02:13UT. The CME had a plane of the sky speed of 712 km/s, and a width of 160 degrees. The bulk of the CME is directed away from Earth to the West, but a glancing blow cannot be ruled out based on current imagery. The CME is estimated to arrive at Earth on 16 March at 18:00UT (+/- 12 hours).

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 053, за даними 06 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 14 Mar 2015

Число Вольфа, Катанія	///
Сонячний потік 10 см	116
AK Chambon La Forêt	///
AK Wingst	006
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	006
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	043 - За даними 15 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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