Перегляд архіву вівторок, 21 квітня 2015

Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2015 Apr 21 1230 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10 см потік	Ap
21 Apr 2015	152	015
22 Apr 2015	154	041
23 Apr 2015	156	022

Бюлетень

Solar flaring activity was moderate with 3 M class flares. The largest, an M2.3 flare occurred just before the end of the reporting period, peaking at 11:57 UT and originated from Catania group 28 (NOAA region 2322) near the Western limb. Another M1 flare peaking at 7:21 UT originated from that same region. The region on the Eastern limb which is about to rotate into view caused a long duration M2.2 flare peaking at 10:40UT. Only a number of very low class C flares were observed in addition. There are currently 8 numbered NOAA regions on disc and 9 Catania sunspot groups, with a new group emerging near S14W07. All are fairly unremarkable. We expect C flaring over the next days with a chance for M flaring especially from the new region that is turning onto the disc from the East. Proton fluxes were at background levels. No earth directed CME's have been observed. Solar wind was marked by the arrival of the high speed stream from a positive polarity coronal hole. Just after the start of the reporting period the magnetic field phi angle turned towards the outward direction. The total magnetic field saw a rise from 5-6 nT to about 15 nT in the compression region, while speeds were slowly rising from around 400 km/s to around 500 km/s. Magnetic field then restored to current levels around 7nT with the arrival of the core of the high speed stream around 2:00 UT, reaching a stable speed of close to 600km/s. Bz was variable in the -8nT to +12 nT range Geomagnetic conditions were locally quiet to unsettled (K Dourbes 2-3) with some active periods on the planetary level (NOAA Kp 4 in the 0UT-6UT timeframe). The high speed stream is expected to persist for the day. As its influence declines over the next day the arrival of the April 18 CME will enhance solar wind conditions again/further. Associated with the high speed stream influence some periods of active geomagnetic conditions are possible with afterwards active to minor storm conditions likely with the arrival of the April 18 CME.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 096, за даними 21 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 20 Apr 2015

Число Вольфа, Катанія	///
Сонячний потік 10 см	150
AK Chambon La Forêt	021
AK Wingst	011
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	011
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	098 - За даними 27 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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