Перегляд архіву вівторок, 12 травня 2015

Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2015 May 12 1230 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Сонячні протони

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10 см потік	Ap
12 May 2015	165	026
13 May 2015	165	034
14 May 2015	163	024

Бюлетень

NOAA 2339 produced only low-level C-class flares, mainly over its mixed polarity trailing portion. The strongest flare was a C3.0 flare peaking at 11:51UT, with radio-bursts observed at Humain. A filament erupted at the west solar limb between 02:10 and 03:00UT. It was associated with a C2.6 flare peaking at 03:02UT. Probably in response to this event, the greater than 10 MeV proton flux started to increase shortly after 04:00UT, but did not reach event threshold (10 pfu), reaching a maximum of 6.2 pfu at 07:30UT. No earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CME) were observed over the period.

Further C-class flaring is expected, with a chance on an M-class flare.

Mostly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions were observed, with an active interval at Dourbes (K = 4). Starting around 05:30UT, solar wind speed gradually picked up from 340 km/s to its current value of about 380 km/s. With temperature increasing and density slightly decreasing, this may herald the anticipated arrival of the high speed stream from the negative polarity coronal hole. Bz was mostly negative throughout the period, varying between -8 and + 4 nT.

Unsettled to minor storming conditions are expected.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 121, за даними 14 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 11 May 2015

Число Вольфа, Катанія	180
Сонячний потік 10 см	163
AK Chambon La Forêt	019
AK Wingst	016
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	018
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	114 - За даними 26 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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