Перегляд архіву четвер, 18 червня 2015

Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2015 Jun 18 1230 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10 см потік	Ap
18 Jun 2015	135	010
19 Jun 2015	134	007
20 Jun 2015	132	007

Бюлетень

Solar flaring activity was moderate. Catania region 85 (NOAA region 2365) from right on the West limb produced a long duration M1.2 flare peaking at 01:27 UT. It was associated with a CME and a proton event with the 10 MeV protons passing the 10 MeV event threshold just before 10:00 UT. Further flaring was produced by Catania group 87 (NOAA 2367) with a C5.3 and a C7.2 flare and some low level C flares from also group 92 (NOAA 2371) in the East. Catania groups 87 and 92 (NOAA 2367 and 2371 respectively) are the only significant regions on disk. While 87 seems rather stable for the moment, 92 is appearing as very dynamic. Both are likely sources for C flaring, with also a fair chance for M flares. 10 MeV proton levels are stabilizing around the event threshold. They may initially slightly rise further but such further increase is expected to be rather limited. The CME related to the M1.2 flare is visible in SOHO/LASCO C2 images at 01:25UT (the true onset is missed due to missing frames between 00:48UT and 01:25 UT). The angular width is around 150 degrees with a primary direction to the southwest. Projected speeds are around 650 km/s. Given the location of the source region and the limited partial halo character, it is unlikely that it will have any effect on Earth. Solar wind shows the further decline of the high speed stream influence. Solar wind speed decreased from around 490 km/s to around 420 km/s. Total magnetic field varied in the 4-7nT range. At the beginning of the period Bz changed from negative to positive and was variable later on. Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (local K Dourbes 1-3) with an isolated active episode at the start of the reporting period at planetary level (NOAA Kp=4). Solar wind conditions are expected to return to nominal over the coming days with associated quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 063, за даними 13 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 17 Jun 2015

Число Вольфа, Катанія	///
Сонячний потік 10 см	136
AK Chambon La Forêt	019
AK Wingst	018
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	017
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	068 - За даними 20 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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