Перегляд архіву субота, 15 серпня 2015

Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2015 Aug 15 1348 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10 см потік	Ap
15 Aug 2015	091	021
16 Aug 2015	089	010
17 Aug 2015	087	008

Бюлетень

The only C-class flare reported in the last 24 hours is C1.6 flare, peaking at 12:36 UT today. The flare originated from the NOAA 2401 and was associated with coronal dimming which indicates that there was probably also CME associated with the event. The situation will be clearer as more data will become available in the coming hours. We expect occasional C-class flares in the coming hours.

The partial halo CME, first seen in the SOHO LASCO C2 field of view at 09:36 UT on August 14, was associated with the filament eruption from the south-west quadrant. The CME had the angular width of about 190 degrees and the projected plane of the sky speed of about 300 km/s (as reported by CACTUS software package). The bulk of the CME mass was directed southward of the Sun-Earth line and it is therefore not very probable that this CME will arrive at the Earth. The possible arrival of a CME-driven shock wave might be expected late on August 19 or early morning of August 20 producing at most unsettled geomagnetic conditions.

At 07:30 UT this morning ACE data recorded shock arrival associated with the partial halo CME from August 12. The solar wind speed jumped from 320 to 450 km/s, and the interplanetary magnetic field magnitude reached the value of 28nT. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field had longer interval with the value down to -20nT. This strong southward field produced geomagnetic storm, NOAA reported Kp=7 and Izmiran and Dourbes reported K=5. Currently the interplanetary magnetic field magnitude is about 15nT with the Bz component fluctuating around -10nT. The solar wind speed is about 450 km/s. We expect possibly active geomagnetic conditions in the coming hours.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 035, за даними 14 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 14 Aug 2015

Число Вольфа, Катанія	///
Сонячний потік 10 см	093
AK Chambon La Forêt	010
AK Wingst	004
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	003
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	042 - За даними 27 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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