Перегляд архіву понеділок, 21 вересня 2015

Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2015 Sep 21 1230 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10 см потік	Ap
21 Sep 2015	117	010
22 Sep 2015	123	007
23 Sep 2015	129	009

Бюлетень

Four active regions were reported by NOAA today, with two of them (NOAA ARs 2415 and 2420) having beta-gamma configurations of their photospheric magnetic field. After the M2.1 flare in the NOAA AR 2415 yesterday, the flaring activity became dominated by the NOAA AR 2420. It produced four C-class flares today, the strongest one being the C8.8 flare peaking at 05:18 UT. No Earth-directed CMEs were associated with these flares. We expect flaring activity on the M-level, mostly in the NOAA AR 2420. The solar proton flux at energies above 10 MeV decreased again after the peak yesterday evening, and is currently only slightly above the background. Although a further increase is not excluded due to the approach of the interplanetary shock driven by the CME associated with yesterday's M2.1 flare, we expect the proton flux to remain below the event threshold. A small equatorial coronal hole reached the solar central meridian today. The fast solar wind flow from this coronal hole is expected to arrive at the Earth on September 24. After the arrival of the interplanetary shock yesterday, the solar wind speed at the Earth is fluctuating between 500 and 600 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude decreased down to 6-7 nT. The geomagnetic conditions are quiet to unsettled and are expected to remain so, with isolated intervals of active conditions possible but unlikely.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 071, за даними 18 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 20 Sep 2015

Число Вольфа, Катанія	///
Сонячний потік 10 см	110
AK Chambon La Forêt	043
AK Wingst	030
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	035
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	062 - За даними 27 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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