Перегляд архіву середа, 23 вересня 2015

Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2015 Sep 23 1230 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10 см потік	Ap
23 Sep 2015	105	009
24 Sep 2015	107	021
25 Sep 2015	104	011

Бюлетень

Five sunspot groups are reported by Catania today. Four C-class flares were detected during the past 24 hours (all four this morning), the strongest one being the C2.9 flare peaking at 07:30 UT in the Catania sunspot group 31 (NOAA AR 2415) that is currently located just behind the West solar limb. We expect flaring activity on the C-level, with a small chance for an M-class flare, in particular from a newly emerged Catania sunspot group 39 (NOAA AR 2422) that already produced a C1.2 flare today. A slow partial halo CME (angular width around 160 degrees) first appearing in the SOHO/LASCO C2 field of view at 07:24 UT on September 22 is a backside event and will not arrive at the Earth. An Earth-directed CME is possible in case of an eruption of a filament in the south-east quadrant of the solar disk that is currently approaching the solar central meridian. The Earth is currently inside a solar wind flow with intermediate speed (around 500 km/s). The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) magnitude is slightly elevated in the past several hours (up to 9 nT), but the north- south IMF component Bz is fluctuating. The geomagnetic conditions are on the quiet to unsettled levels and are expected to remain so in the coming hours. Active to minor storm geomagnetic conditions are possible tomorrow due to the arrival of the fast solar wind flow from a small equatorial coronal hole.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 089, за даними 10 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 22 Sep 2015

Число Вольфа, Катанія	086
Сонячний потік 10 см	107
AK Chambon La Forêt	///
AK Wingst	011
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	011
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	077 - За даними 24 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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