Перегляд архіву пʼятниця, 16 жовтня 2015

Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2015 Oct 16 1230 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10 см потік	Ap
16 Oct 2015	112	017
17 Oct 2015	116	026
18 Oct 2015	120	012

Бюлетень

NOAA 2434 increased its sunspot area and developed a delta structure in its leading portion. Its flaring frequency and intensity increased with a total of 11 C-class flares and 2 impulsive M1.1 flares, peaking resp. at 23:31UT and 06:16UT. Old active region NOAA 2420, currently still behind the northeast limb, announced its return by producing a C4.9 flare at 23:05UT. The leading portion of old active region 2422 has started to round the southeast limb. The other sunspot regions have been quiet. Based on currently available coronagraphic imagery, no earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have been observed.

There's a good chance on more M-class flares, from NOAA 2434 as well as from the returning regions NOAA 2420 and NOAA 2422.

Solar wind speed showed a declining trend and ranged between 450 km/s and 360 km/s. Bz was mostly negative with values near -7 nT until about 08:00UT, when it gradually turned positive with values up to +3 nT. This coincided with a change in the direction of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) from mostly negative (towards the Sun) to positive (away from the Sun). Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions were observed.

Mostly quiet to active geomagnetic conditions are expected. A minor geomagnetic storming episode on 16-17 October remains possible as Earth is still expected to pass through the high speed stream from the eastmost trans-equatorial extension of the northern coronal hole.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 049, за даними 09 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 15 Oct 2015

Число Вольфа, Катанія	///
Сонячний потік 10 см	107
AK Chambon La Forêt	017
AK Wingst	012
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	010
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	050 - За даними 16 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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