Перегляд архіву четвер, 29 жовтня 2015

Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2015 Oct 29 1233 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Proton event in progress (>10 MeV)

	10 см потік	Ap
29 Oct 2015	114	006
30 Oct 2015	112	013
31 Oct 2015	110	007

Бюлетень

Solar flaring activity was low with a number of low class C flares from Catania groups 55 (NOAA 2437) and 62 (NOAA 2443), the new region on the East limb. The strongest was a C1.5 flare peaking at 00:21UT from Catania group 62 (NOAA 2437). Flaring at C level is expected to continue over the next days with a chance for an M flare. A combination of 2 CME's is visible in LASCO/C2 images from 1:25 UT onwards. The first one is directed SouthWest, and rather slow. No on disk source could be attributed to this event and it is believed to be backsided. It is immediately followed by a second CME visible from 2:24UT onwards, which is directed slightly less Southward. It can be associated with activity in Catania group 55 (NOAA 2437) although there is no corresponding strong Xray flare. Its angular width is between 120 and 150 degrees and the projected speed of the order of 500 km/s. It can not be excluded that a shock from this CME may arrive from early November 1 onwards. The CME event also caused the proton event of this morning. The proton levels started to rise around 3:00 UT following the CME onset. The >10 MeV proton levels have reached the event threshold of 10 pfu around 5:50UT reaching a peak of around 24 pfu around 10:00UT. The levels of >100 MeV and >50MeV protons also increased above 1 pfu but remained below 10pfu. The proton levels are currently declining with the >10MeV levels almost below the event threshold. >10MeV Proton levels are expected to remain enhanced for the next days. Solar wind speed was within the 290-300 km/s range. Total magnetic field increased from below 3.5 nT to levels reaching 7 nT, with Bz mostly positive and not below -3 nT. The phi angle was mostly in the inward sector but showed some rotation at the start of the period. Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (local K Dourbes 0-3, NOAA Kp 0-2). Largely nominal solar wind conditions are expected to continue, though an expected sector boundary crossing could cause some perturbations and isolated periods of active geomagnetic conditions. The possible arrival of a shock related to this mornings CME may later cause active to minor geomagnetic storm conditions.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 085, за даними 12 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 28 Oct 2015

Число Вольфа, Катанія	///
Сонячний потік 10 см	112
AK Chambon La Forêt	003
AK Wingst	000
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	001
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	075 - За даними 18 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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