Перегляд архіву понеділок, 9 листопада 2015

Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2015 Nov 09 1230 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10 см потік	Ap
09 Nov 2015	108	022
10 Nov 2015	107	012
11 Nov 2015	108	024

Бюлетень

Over the past 24 hours there was no significant flaring activity recorded. However, most small-scale activity appears to be occurring around NOAA Active Regions (AR) 2449 (Dao-Beta) and 2450 (Bxo-Beta) which have a complex magnetic topology. Previously active AR 2443 has moved over the Western hemisphere limb. ARs 2448 and 2451 (located near disk center) appear stable, with small amounts of flux emergence. Flaring is expected to continue at the B-class level with a reasonable possibility of C-class flares and small possibility of an M-class flare. No significant filaments are visible. No significant eruptions were observed, and no Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) were recorded. The solar wind speed has remained largely stable over the past 24 hours, around 500 km /s. The total magnetic field has slightly decreased from around 10 nT to 7 nT, and the Bz component has been largely negative. The Bz has been mainly around -5nT over the past 24 hours. Geomagnetic conditions ranged between quiet and active over the past 24 hours (NOAA Kp 1-4, local K Dourbes 2-4). With NOAA Kp remaining at Kp 4 levels throughout the morning (2015-Nov-09). A large (positive) coronal hole is currently centered at N30W30 and is probably the source of the slightly enhanced solar wind speeds and negative Bz. A small co-rotating interaction region (CIR) is believed to have preceded the coronal hole high speed stream. As this region rotates further into the Western hemisphere it will maintain increased solar wind speeds, as a consequence Solar wind conditions are expected to remain enhanced. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to vary between quiet and active.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 063, за даними 15 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 08 Nov 2015

Число Вольфа, Катанія	///
Сонячний потік 10 см	108
AK Chambon La Forêt	031
AK Wingst	019
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	018
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	074 - За даними 22 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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