Перегляд архіву субота, 30 січня 2016

Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2016 Jan 30 1235 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10 см потік	Ap
30 Jan 2016	105	003
31 Jan 2016	103	005
01 Feb 2016	101	008

Бюлетень

Over the past 24 hours solar activity has been low. The largest flare was a C2.0 class flare peaking at 21:46 UT. NOAA Active Region (AR) 2488 (Macintosh class:Dao; Mag. type:Beta) has been most active, but has now moved on to the West limb. AR 2490 (Bxo; Beta) has also been active producing several small flares. AR 2488 has shown some evidence of flux emergence and cancellation in HMI observations, but appears stable. This may increase flaring activity. There is currently a large positive Northern polar coronal in the Western hemisphere, but solar wind speeds have remained low, there is a small chance of increased solar wind speeds over the next day. There were a series of small Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) off of the West limb. There were two filament eruptions that occurred close to the West limb, the first at approximately 05:30 UT and the second at 21:10 UT yesterday (29-Jan-2015). Both are not expected to interact with the Earth system. No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected. Solar activity is expected to remain low over the next 24 hours with a high probability of C-class flares and a low probability of M-class flares. The solar wind speed has decreased from around 310 to 270 km/s over the past 24 hours. The total magnetic field strength has slowly decreased from around 5 to 3 nT. The Bz component fluctuated around 0 nT, ranging between -2 and +2 nT. Geomagnetic conditions ranged between Kp index 0-1 (NOAA) and local K index 0-2 (Dourbes) over the past 24 hours. A positive polar coronal hole is currently positioned in the Western hemisphere of the Sun, but the solar wind speed has remained low. Geo-activity is expected to remain low unless the solar wind speed increases.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 033, за даними 03 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 29 Jan 2016

Число Вольфа, Катанія	///
Сонячний потік 10 см	107
AK Chambon La Forêt	006
AK Wingst	003
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	002
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	061 - За даними 18 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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