Перегляд архіву понеділок, 2 травня 2016

Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2016 May 02 1242 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10 см потік	Ap
02 May 2016	093	021
03 May 2016	094	007
04 May 2016	096	005

Бюлетень

There are currently seven numbered sunspot groups visible on the solar disc, and all have simple configuration of their photospheric magnetic field. Two most complex groups are Catania sunspot group 64 and 67 (NOAA AR 2536 and 2539, respectively) with the beta configuration of their photospheric magnetic field. The strongest, out of two C-class flares reported during last 24 hours, was the impulsive C3.5 (peaking at 08:42 UT) on May 06. The flare originating from the newly emerged NOAA AR 2540, and was associated with the EIT wave, the type II radio burst (indicating the speed of the shock wave to be about 1800 km/s as reported by San Vito Observatory) and the CME. The angular width of the CME is at the moment not clearly visible (only few frames of coronagraph data are currently available). However, it seems that the CME is directed north-east from the Sun-Earth line. We expect C-class flares in the following 24 hours (probability is about 60 percent).

The Earth is presently inside the fast solar wind (the speed is about 500 km/s). The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude amounts about 7 nT. Early this morning, negative value of the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field (down to -10 nT) and the fast solar wind speed (about 500 km/s) induced geomagnetic storm conditions (NOAA reported planetary K index to be 6 and local station at Dourbes reported K=4). The arrival of the fast solar wind which induced the geomagnetic storm conditions could be associated with either of two coronal holes, the low latitude one on the northern hemisphere (between N10 and N30) or the narrow and elongated equatorial coronal hole, which both reached the central meridian in the late evening of April 26. Currently, the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field amounts about -5 nT and the geomagnetic conditions are quiet to unsettled. However, if the value of the Bz component decreases again, the intervals of the active and storm conditions are possible in the coming hours.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 087, за даними 22 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 01 May 2016

Число Вольфа, Катанія	///
Сонячний потік 10 см	092
AK Chambon La Forêt	044
AK Wingst	016
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	018
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	084 - За даними 19 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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