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Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2016 Jul 16 1230 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10 см потік	Ap
16 Jul 2016	104	009
17 Jul 2016	103	010
18 Jul 2016	102	021

Бюлетень

Over the past 24 hours solar activity has been increasing. The largest flare was a C6.8 class flare. Active Region (AR) 2567 (Macintosh class:Dac; Mag. type:Beta-Gamma-Delta) has been the most active producing the C6.8 class flare, peaking at 07:04 UT this morning. The region shows evidence of flux emergence and cancellation in HMI magnetogram observations, this region is likely to produce further flaring activity. AR 2564 has also produced a couple of C class flares, and AR 2565 B class flares. Other regions appear stable. No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected. Solar protons have remained at background levels over the past 24 hours. There is currently a large +ve polarity northern polar coronal hole extending to low latitudes located on the Western limb of the Sun. Solar activity is expected to remain at medium levels over the next 24 hours with a high probability of C-class flares and a low probability of M-class flares. The solar wind speed has been slowly decreasing from around around 650 km/s to 575 km/s over the past 24 hours. The total magnetic field strength has remained around 4 nT, but jumped up to 6 nT at 11:00 UT this morning. The Bz component fluctuated around 0 nT, ranging between -4 and +4 nT. Geomagnetic conditions ranged between Kp index 1-3 (NOAA) and local K index 1-3 (Dourbes) over the past 24 hours. The solar wind speed has been decreasing following the High Speed Stream (HSS) created by the large northern polar coronal hole close to the Western limb. If the enhanced wind speeds are coupled with negative Bz this may increase geomagnetic activity over the next couple of days.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 071, за даними 10 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 15 Jul 2016

Число Вольфа, Катанія	113
Сонячний потік 10 см	102
AK Chambon La Forêt	020
AK Wingst	013
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	014
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	080 - За даними 30 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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