Перегляд архіву вівторок, 30 серпня 2016

Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2016 Aug 30 1230 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10 см потік	Ap
30 Aug 2016	086	008
31 Aug 2016	088	022
01 Sep 2016	091	011

Бюлетень

Over the past 24 hours solar activity has been low. The largest flare was a C1.1 class flare. Active Region (AR) 2583 (Macintosh class:Dao; Mag. type:Beta) has been most active, producing the C1.1 class flare, which peaked at 17:36 UT yesterday. All other ARs have shown low levels of activity. AR 2583 still shows evidence of flux emergence and cancellation in HMI magnetogram observations which may increase flaring activity, however, the region is approaching the West solar limb. A filament channel located between N30W15 and N15W60 was observed to lift off around 19:00 UT yesterday in SDO/AIA 304 observations. The eruption did not produce a clear Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) signature in coronagraph observations, but there were significant data gaps in imagery. There is some evidence of a small CME moving off to West, which will have a small impact on the Earth system. Solar protons have remained at background levels over the past 24 hours. Solar activity is expected to remain low over the next 24 hours with a chance of C-class flares and a low probability of M-class flares.

The solar wind speed has increased from around 330 to 425 km/s over the past 24 hours. The total magnetic field strength has increased from around 5 nT to 10 nT. The Bz component has oscillated between positive and negative, fluctuating between -8 and +10 nT. Geomagnetic conditions ranged between Kp index 2-3 (NOAA) and local K index 1-3 (Dourbes) over the past 24 hours. A small trans-equatorial coronal hole located at central latitudes, N01W60, created enhanced solar wind speeds at Earth due to its associated high-speed stream (HSS), which are expected to persist throughout the day and may enhance geomagnetic activity. A large positive polarity Northern polar coronal hole located near central longitudes extending toward low latitudes is expected to enhance solar wind speeds in the coming days. As a consequence the geomagnetic activity is expected to be slightly enhanced today and again later in the week. The small filament eruption discussed above is expected to move to the West and avoid the Earth system.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 078, за даними 20 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 29 Aug 2016

Число Вольфа, Катанія	///
Сонячний потік 10 см	///
AK Chambon La Forêt	///
AK Wingst	012
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	010
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	068 - За даними 24 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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