Перегляд архіву понеділок, 5 вересня 2016

Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2016 Sep 05 1231 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10 см потік	Ap
05 Sep 2016	093	014
06 Sep 2016	095	014
07 Sep 2016	095	006

Бюлетень

NOAA 2585 shows signs of decay. It produced the only two flaring events of the period: a B9.2 flare peaking at 18:17UT, and a B6.4 at 09:12UT. A potentially active region is about to rotate over the east limb. A 40-degrees long filament in the northwest quadrant is quiet. A slow coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in LASCO/C2 imagery on 04 September starting at 13:36UT. It was most likely associated with a small reconnection event near S15W20 around 08:00UT. The CME seems to be mainly directed south of the ecliptic with no obvious earth-directed component.

C-class flares are possible, with a small chance on an isolated M-class event.

Solar wind parameters seem to indicate a weakening influence of the coronal hole (CH) high speed wind stream (HSS), with speed declining from initial values near 700 km/s to its current 600 km/s. Bz fluctuated between -5 and +5 nT, with the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) directed away from the Sun (positive). Mostly unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions were reported by Dourbes. Kp reached minor storm levels during the 18-21UT interval.

Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions are expected, with still a small chance on a minor storming episode. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to return to mostly quiet levels over the next 2 days as the effects of the CH HSS are expected to further decline.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 031, за даними 17 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 04 Sep 2016

Число Вольфа, Катанія	///
Сонячний потік 10 см	097
AK Chambon La Forêt	039
AK Wingst	030
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	034
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	049 - За даними 29 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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