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Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2017 Feb 04 1230 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Геомагнетизм

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10 см потік	Ap
04 Feb 2017	075	015
05 Feb 2017	074	013
06 Feb 2017	075	013

Бюлетень

Over the past 24 hours solar activity has been very low. No significant flares have been recorded. However, a couple of small Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were produced around Active Regions (ARs) 2632 (Mcintosh class:Cao; Mag. type:Beta) and 2629 (Mcintosh class:Hax; Mag. type:Alpha) at 12:00 UT yesterday, neither event is expected to impact the Earth due to size and direction mainly to the West. All other Active Regions (ARs) have shown low levels of activity. No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected. Solar protons have remained at background levels over the past 24 hours. Solar activity is expected to remain low over the next 24 hours with a low probability of C-class flares and a very low probability of M-class flares. A large negative polarity trans-equatorial coronal hole extending from the Southern pole is approaching the West solar limb. The solar wind speed been slowly decreasing and fluctuated between 650 and 550 km/s over the past 24 hours. The total magnetic field strength has been around 5 nT. The Bz component fluctuated between -5 and +5 nT. Geomagnetic conditions ranged between Kp index 2-3 (NOAA) and local K index 1-4 (Dourbes) over the past 24 hours. The high speed stream (HSS) associated with the large negative polarity trans-equatorial coronal hole extending from the Southern pole is the cause of the increased solar wind speeds creating active Geomagnetic conditions. The enhanced solar wind speed at the Earth is now decreasing as the region slowly rotates over the West solar limb. Consequently geomagnetic conditions should remain mainly quiet with the isolated chance of active conditions.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 009, за даними 05 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 03 Feb 2017

Число Вольфа, Катанія	042
Сонячний потік 10 см	075
AK Chambon La Forêt	028
AK Wingst	022
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	022
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	034 - За даними 21 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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