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Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2017 Sep 10 1230 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10 см потік	Ap
10 Sep 2017	100	006
11 Sep 2017	095	007
12 Sep 2017	092	007

Бюлетень

Catania group 46 (NOAA active region 2673) continued to dominate solar activity. The largest flare was an M1.1 flare peaking at 13:53UT September 9. This region has currently reached the Western limb. Other regions on disk were stable or in decay while a new region has appeared from over the Eastern limb. As long as Catania group 46 has not fully disappeared over the Western limb, further M flares must be accounted for, with also a chance for an X flare remaining.

Associated to the M1.1 flare a CME was seen in coronagraph images. It is directed Westward and appears to be limited in angular extent and hence will not be influencing Earth.

The >10MeV proton flux has dropped below 1pfu during the period and is further approaching background values. Associated with the activity in Catania sunspot group 46 (NOAA region 2673), chances for renewed increases in proton fluxes remain, but are decreasing.

A positive polarity coronal hole in the northern hemisphere is starting to transit the central meridian and could influence solar wind conditions from September 13 onwards.

Solar wind conditions have been stable with solar wind speed around 550km/s, total magnetic field nominal at 4-5nT and Bz mostly positive. The slightly elevated solar wind speed is expected to persist over the next 24 hours and later decline towards nominal values. Geomagnetic conditions were quiet (local K Dourbes 0-2, NOAA Kp 0-1). Over the next days, quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 047, за даними 17 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 09 Sep 2017

Число Вольфа, Катанія	///
Сонячний потік 10 см	107
AK Chambon La Forêt	004
AK Wingst	003
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	003
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	069 - За даними 23 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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