Перегляд архіву неділя, 19 серпня 2018

Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2018 Aug 19 1235 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Геомагнетизм

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10 см потік	Ap
19 Aug 2018	066	005
20 Aug 2018	067	021
21 Aug 2018	068	019

Бюлетень

The solar activity has been quiet over the past 24 hours. The sunspot group (NOAA 2718) remained stable and no significant flare has been recorded. A new sunspot group is currently developing on the East-South quadrant of the solar disc. Quiet flaring conditions with a chance of C-class flares from this new sunspot are expected.

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejection has been observed. The solar protons flux remained at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so.

The solar wind parameters have shown a return towards an ambient-background and slow solar wind speed regime. The wind speed unsteadily decreased from 575 to near 430 km/s. Total interplanetary magnetic field strength was fairly steady remaining below 5 nT. The Southward magnetic component fluctuated between -5 and 5 nT with no prolonged period of southward direction. The solar wind speed is expected to continue its return towards nominal values today and tomorrow morning. The solar wind will then be re- enhanced due to the arrival of the fast solar wind associated with the equatorial coronal hole of negative polarity that has reached the central meridian on August 17. Another equatorial coronal hole (located around -15 degree latitude) of negative polarity has reached the central meridian today, the enhancement of the solar wind due to this coronal hole is expected to come relatively fast after.

The geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled. The conditions are expected to return to quiet as the solar wind speed is returning towards slow wind regime. Unsettled to active conditions are then expected by August 20 in the afternoon due to the influence of the solar wind associated to the coronal hole (that has reached the central meridian on August 17).

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 021, за даними 20 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 18 Aug 2018

Число Вольфа, Катанія	///
Сонячний потік 10 см	067
AK Chambon La Forêt	015
AK Wingst	013
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	014
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	011 - За даними 25 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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