Перегляд архіву пʼятниця, 11 січня 2019

Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2019 Jan 11 1235 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Геомагнетизм

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10 см потік	Ap
11 Jan 2019	069	008
12 Jan 2019	070	013
13 Jan 2019	071	022

Бюлетень

The solar activity has been quiet over the past 24 hours. The X-ray flux remained below B-level, and the visible solar disc is spotless. Solar activity is expected to remain at low levels.

Some few narrow and slow solar Coronal Mass Ejections have been observed at the limb but no Earth directed component has been identified. The greater than 10 MeV solar protons flux remained at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so.

The wind speed increased from nominal values around 360 km/s up to 515 km/s. Total interplanetary magnetic field strength reached 8.7 nT on Jan 11 around 06:30 UT. The southward magnetic component was between -7.0 and 4.7 nT with a longer negative period between 04.00 and 07:00 UT on Jan 11. This slight enhancement of the solar wind parameters is probably due to a small isolate equatorial coronal hole of negative polarity and ranging between latitudes -15 and -30 degrees that transited the central meridian on Jan 8. The solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced for the following days due to this coronal hole influence. The influence of the second equatorial coronal hole reaching the central meridian on Jan 9 is expected to enhance further the solar wind parameters on Jan 13.

The geomagnetic conditions were quiet until Jan 11 at 06:00, then in response to the enhanced interplanetary magnetic field and prolonged periods of southward directed Bz component, the geomagnetic became unsettled. The geomagnetic conditions are expected to remain unsettled to active. Possible isolated minor storm conditions may be observed in the coming days, in particular, if the Bz component stays negative for longer periods.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 000, за даними 08 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 10 Jan 2019

Число Вольфа, Катанія	///
Сонячний потік 10 см	070
AK Chambon La Forêt	006
AK Wingst	003
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	002
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	000 - За даними 13 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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