Перегляд архіву четвер, 14 березня 2019

Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2019 Mar 14 1241 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Геомагнетизм

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10 см потік	Ap
14 Mar 2019	070	013
15 Mar 2019	070	020
16 Mar 2019	070	011

Бюлетень

Solar activity was low with X-ray flux remaining below B level. A new small bipolar region (Catania group 10) formed overnight but has by now almost lost its spots already. X-ray flux is expected to remain below C level.

Coronagraph images show a faint and slow Eastward CME in the morning of March 12. It is also and more clearly visible in STEREO A COR2 images moving there towards the West. This confirms the CME is heading towards a direction in between Earth and STEREO A. It's speed is estimated not to exceed background solar wind. While it is not excluded that a component of the CME reaches Earth by late March 16 or March 17, its effects should be minimal. No other Earth directed CME's have been detected in coronagraph data.

The Solar proton flux levels were at background values and are expected to remain so.

Solar wind conditions were close to nominal with solar wind speed in the 320-370 km/s range and total magnetic field around a nominal 5nT. Since after 2:00UT magnetic field orientation suggests the passage of a magnetic structure possibly associated to the March 9 CME. Solar wind conditions are expected to become enhanced later today or tomorrow due to the expected high speed stream from the equatorial coronal hole that crossed central meridian late March 10. Towards March 17 there is a small possibility of some slow CME transients assoicated to the March 12 CME.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet (both NOAA Kp and local K Dourbes 0-2) and are expected to become unsettled with a possibility for active periods under high speed stream influence.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 012, за даними 09 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 13 Mar 2019

Число Вольфа, Катанія	000
Сонячний потік 10 см	071
AK Chambon La Forêt	006
AK Wingst	004
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	003
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	000 - За даними 20 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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