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Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2019 Mar 16 1236 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Геомагнетизм

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10 см потік	Ap
16 Mar 2019	070	015
17 Mar 2019	069	022
18 Mar 2019	069	008

Бюлетень

X-ray flux remained below B level. With a spotless disk, again X-ray flux is expected to remain below C level.

No new Earth directed CME's have been detected in coronagraph data.

The Solar proton flux levels were at background values and are expected to remain so.

Solar wind conditions continued to reflect the influence of the coronal hole, with Solar wind speed increasing but not reaching above current values of around 430 km/s. Total magnetic field reached a peak of just over 8nT late yesterday before decreasing steadily to current values between 5-6nT. Bz was variable in general but recently negative with values down below -5nT. The magnetic field phi angle was stable in the negative sector. Solar wind conditions will remain slightly enhanced with wind speed likely to rise somewhat further under the influence of the equatorial coronal hole, though speeds should start to decrease over the next 24 hours. Further slow transient perturbations are also possible in the next 24 hours due to the March 12 CME. Late March 18, early March 19 we are expected to see the influence of the equatorial positive polarity coronal hole that passed central meridian March 14/15.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (NOAA Kp 0-3 and local K Dourbes 1-3). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled with a possibility for active periods under enhanced solar speed speed conditions, possibly combined with some CME transients. Afterwards, geomagnetic conditions are expected to become quiet until the high speed stream expected late March 18, early March 19.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 000, за даними 09 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 15 Mar 2019

Число Вольфа, Катанія	000
Сонячний потік 10 см	070
AK Chambon La Forêt	010
AK Wingst	009
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	008
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	000 - За даними 15 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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