Перегляд архіву середа, 15 травня 2019

Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2019 May 15 1238 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Геомагнетизм

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10 см потік	Ap
15 May 2019	075	014
16 May 2019	075	023
17 May 2019	074	027

Бюлетень

Alpha region NOAA 2741 produced a B3.6 flare peaking at 8:40 UT on May 15. The chance for a C flare in the next 24 hours, especially from region 2741, is estimated at 25%.

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraphic imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours.

The solar wind has been elevated since the arrival of an ICME on May 13. The observed solar wind speed at arrival suggests that this ICME is not associated with the CME of May 11, but with another CME which was not observed. Solar wind speed as measured by DSCOVR decreased from about 540 to 420 km/s in the past 24 hours, while the magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field varied between about 2 and 10 nT. Bz was never below -5 nT. Solar wind conditions are expected to stay enhanced in the next days, with the expected arrival of the May 11, 12 and 13 CMEs.

Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes between 1 and 4; NOAA Kp between 1 and 4) were registered in the past 24 hours. Active to moderate storm intervals (K Dourbes = 4-6) are possible on May 15, 16 and 17, due to the expected arrival of the May 11, 12 and 13 CMEs.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 023, за даними 19 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 14 May 2019

Число Вольфа, Катанія	024
Сонячний потік 10 см	074
AK Chambon La Forêt	032
AK Wingst	033
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	036
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	023 - За даними 27 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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