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Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2020 Nov 27 1232 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10 см потік	Ap
27 Nov 2020	109	009
28 Nov 2020	110	007
29 Nov 2020	111	003

Бюлетень

Solar activity was at low levels in the past 24 hours. NOAA Active Region (AR) 2786 (Beta-Gamma) shows signs of development of small delta spots near the main sunspot. The region produced C-class flaring activity, the largest of which was a C3.8 flare peaking at 12:53 UT Nov 26. NOAA AR 2783 (Beta) and NOAA AR 2785 (Alpha) remained quiet. Two further active regions are now rotating onto the disk, one of which is located at N30E75 (Catania sunspot group 58) and produced a long duration C2 flare peaking at at 21:23 UT Nov 26. The solar activity is expected to remain at low levels with a high chance for C-class flares, particularly from NOAA AR 2786 and from the active regions rotating onto the solar disk. An isolated M-class flare also remains possible.

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraphic imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux exceeded the 1000 pfu alert threshold between 14:15 and 20:25 UT Nov 26. During the next 24 hours, the electron flux is likely to have a lower peak value but may exceed the 1000 pfu level again. The 24h electron fluence was at normal to moderate levels and is expected to decrease to normal levels over the next 24 hours.

Over the past 24 hours, the solar wind speed increased slightly, with values ranging between 380 and 480 km/s (DSCOVR). The total magnetic field strength had a maximum value of 9 nT. Bz had a minimum value of -7 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field was predominantly directed away from the Sun (phi angle in the positive sector). Over the next 24 hours, the solar wind may continue to show further weak enhancements associated with the extension to the northern polar coronal hole, which crossed the central meridian on Nov 23, before returning to nominal conditions from Nov 28.

Geomagnetic conditions were at quiet to unsettled levels over the past 24 hours (NOAA Kp and local k Dourbes recorded values of 1-3 and 0-3, respectively). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels for the next 48 hours with the possibility of an isolated active interval in response to the predicted possible further enhancements in the solar wind.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 065, за даними 15 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 26 Nov 2020

Число Вольфа, Катанія	///
Сонячний потік 10 см	106
AK Chambon La Forêt	013
AK Wingst	008
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	007
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	047 - За даними 19 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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