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Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2020 Dec 17 1231 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Геомагнетизм

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10 см потік	Ap
17 Dec 2020	082	007
18 Dec 2020	082	009
19 Dec 2020	082	004

Бюлетень

NOAA region 2793 has produced one low B flare in the past 24 hours. The chance for a C flare in the next 24 hours is estimated at 10%.

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraphic imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence was at nominal levels during the past 24 hours, and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Solar wind speed near Earth as registered by DSCOVR varied between about 265 and 295 km/s in the past 24 hours. The orientation of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) was predominantly positive (away from the Sun) and its magnitude varied between about 1 and 7 nT. Bz was never below -5 nT. Slight enhancements in the solar wind may be possible in the second half of December 17 and on December 18, due to the possible influence of a recurrent, small, negative polarity coronal hole that passed the central meridian on December 14. Nominal solar wind conditions are expected on December 19.

Quiet geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes between 0 and 2; NOAA Kp between 0 and 1) were registered in the past 24 hours. Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic levels (K Dourbes < 4) are expected on December 17, 18 and 19, with a chance for active intervals (K Dourbes = 4) on the second half of December 17 and on December 18.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 011, за даними 12 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 16 Dec 2020

Число Вольфа, Катанія	012
Сонячний потік 10 см	082
AK Chambon La Forêt	005
AK Wingst	002
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	002
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	011 - За даними 13 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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