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Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2020 Dec 22 1259 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Геомагнетизм

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10 см потік	Ap
22 Dec 2020	081	012
23 Dec 2020	083	023
24 Dec 2020	084	015

Бюлетень

Solar flaring activity was at very low levels. No significant flares have been recorded. AR 2796 (Hsx/alpha) was the source of a few B class flares, while the remnants of regions 2792 and 2793 are crossing the disk. Solar activity is expected to remain mainly at low levels, with a low chance of C class flares from AR 2796.

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in the available coronagraphic imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours. It is expected to increase as a response to the High Speed Stream associated with the extension of the northern Coronal Hole. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence, increased slightly, remaining at nominal levels during the past 24 hours. It is expected to increase as a response to the High Speed Stream associated with the extension of the northern Coronal Hole.

Solar wind speed near Earth as registered by DSCOVR was elevated, varying between 360 and 575 km/s in the past 24 hours. The orientation of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) switched from the negative (towards the Sun) to the positive sector (away from the Sun) late Dec 21, when the HSS from the CH crossing CM Dec 17 seems to have arrived to Earth. This caused its magnitude to reach 19 nT while Bz varied between -12 and 16 nT. Solar wind conditions are anticipated to become further enhanced as the combined effects with the HSS associated with the extension of the northern Coronal Hole crossing CM at Dec 20 are to be expected.

Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions, with an active event late Dec 21 to early Dec 22 (K Dourbes and Kp 4), with values registered for the past 24 hours for K Dourbes varying 0-4 and 1-4 for NOAA Kp. Unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions are possible for the next 48 hours due to the expected combined effects of the HSSs originating from the extensions of the positive northern polar coronal hole, with a slight chance for minor storm conditions (K Dourbes = 5) around December 23.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 010, за даними 09 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 21 Dec 2020

Число Вольфа, Катанія	///
Сонячний потік 10 см	080
AK Chambon La Forêt	022
AK Wingst	014
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	013
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	010 - За даними 07 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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