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Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2021 Jan 30 1234 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Геомагнетизм

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10 см потік	Ap
30 Jan 2021	076	003
31 Jan 2021	075	003
01 Feb 2021	075	010

Бюлетень

Solar activity was at low levels over the past 24 hours. There are no sunspot regions on the visible solar disk. NOAA plage region 2800 produced a B3.8 flare at 20:16 UT, with an associated on solar dimming. Solar activity is expected to remain at low levels.

Two narrow and slow Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) observed in LASCO-C2 imagery directed to the solar west are not expected to impact Earth. A filament eruption occurred in the south-east quadrant from 8 UT for which coronagraph observations are not yet available.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux exceeded the 1000 pfu threshold for most of the time during the past 24 hours. The electron flux is expected to remain above this alert level during most of the next period. The 24h electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to continue at moderate levels over the next 24 hours.

Over the past 24 hours, the solar wind speed ranged between 318 and 390 km/s (DSCOVR). The total magnetic field strength fluctuated between 2 and 5 nT. Bz had a minimum value of -3 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field was predominantly directed towards the Sun (phi angle in the negative sector). Over the next 24 hours, the solar wind parameters are expected to reflect a slow solar wind regime. The solar wind parameters are then expected to become enhanced from Feb 01 due to the arrival of the high-speed stream associated with the elongated negative polarity coronal hole that began to cross the central meridian on Jan 28.

Geomagnetic conditions were at quiet levels (NOAA Kp and local k Dourbes recorded values between 0-1.) Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be at quiet levels for the next 24 hours. From Feb 01, active conditions are expected with a possible isolated minor storm interval in response to the arrival of the aforementioned high-speed stream.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 000, за даними 07 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 29 Jan 2021

Число Вольфа, Катанія	///
Сонячний потік 10 см	076
AK Chambon La Forêt	006
AK Wingst	///
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	003
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	000 - За даними 16 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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