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Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2021 Feb 20 1230 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Геомагнетизм

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10 см потік	Ap
20 Feb 2021	073	019
21 Feb 2021	073	022
22 Feb 2021	073	017

Бюлетень

The solar activity has been quiet over the past 24 hours. The unipolar sunspot (Catania 73, NOAA-AR 2803) is on the visible solar disc, however, no significant flaring activity was recorded. The solar activity is expected to remain at low levels for the next 24 hours with small chances of C-class flare from the newly emerged sunspot.

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections was observed in the available coronagraph imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained under the 1000 pfu threshold. The electron flux is expected to increase in the next few days due to the enhancement of the solar wind conditions and may pass the 1000 pfu threshold.

Over the past 24 hours, the Earth was under the influence of the fast solar wind regime. The solar wind speed increased from about 360 km/s to almost 600 km/s. The total magnetic field reached 14 nT. The Bz component fluctuated between -10 nT and 11 nT. This unexpected observed high-speed streams is most probably associated with the southern solar coronal hole (negative magnetic polarity) and is expected to continue its influence on the solar wind environment near Earth for several days. The enhancement will also be combined with the expected influence of the high-speed streams coming from the equatorial coronal hole (negative magnetic polarity and facing Earth on February 18) tomorrow.

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were active. The conditions are expected to remain active with possible periods of storm conditions (Kp, and K-Dourbes equal to 5) in response to the enhancement of the solar wind parameters and possible prolonged periods of southward directed Bz component.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 011, за даними 19 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 19 Feb 2021

Число Вольфа, Катанія	022
Сонячний потік 10 см	073
AK Chambon La Forêt	027
AK Wingst	///
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	018
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	011 - За даними 19 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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