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Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2021 Mar 01 1238 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Геомагнетизм

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10 см потік	Ap
01 Mar 2021	078	019
02 Mar 2021	077	025
03 Mar 2021	076	017

Бюлетень

Beta region NOAA 2804 has turned behind the west limb. The Sun did not produce any C flares in the past 24 hours. The chance for a C flare in the next 24 hours is estimated at 30%.

LASCO C2 observed a CME towards the West from 9:42 UTC onwards on February 28 (after a data gap), possibly related to the C3.9 flare in NOAA region 2804 at 6:46 UTC. Due to its orientation, we do not expect this CME to be Earthbound.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was around threshold value levels On February 28, and is at nominal levels since the UTC start of March 1. Moderate levels are possible in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence was at nominal levels during the past 24 hours, and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Solar wind speed near Earth as registered by DSCOVR increased from about 350 to about 540 km/s in the past 24 hours, with current values around 470 km/s, indicative of a Corotating Interaction Region. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) was oriented away from the Sun until the solar wind enhancement, and has been fluctuating since then. Its magnitude varied between about 1 and 15 nT, with current values around 5 nT. Bz was below -5 nT between about 0h and 6h UTC on March 1. Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected in the next 24 hours, with the expected arrival of the high speed stream associated with the negative polarity southern crown coronal hole that crossed the Central Meridian on February 26.

Quiet to active conditions (K Dourbes between 1 and 4; NOAA Kp between 1 and 6) were registered in the past 24 hours. Active geomagnetic levels (K Dourbes = 4) are possible on March 1, 2 and 3, with a chance for minor geomagnetic levels (K Dourbes = 5).

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 011, за даними 16 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 28 Feb 2021

Число Вольфа, Катанія	///
Сонячний потік 10 см	078
AK Chambon La Forêt	027
AK Wingst	///
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	007
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	013 - За даними 37 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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