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Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2021 Mar 07 1230 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Геомагнетизм

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10 см потік	Ap
07 Mar 2021	078	011
08 Mar 2021	078	010
09 Mar 2021	078	011

Бюлетень

While NOAA region 2807 has decayed to a plage, region 2806 has shown flux emergence and is now again a beta region. The Sun did not produce any C flares during the past 24 hours. The chance for a C flare in the next 24 hours is estimated at 20%, especially from region 2806.

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraphic imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours. Mostly nominal levels are expected on March 7, while a return to moderate levels is possible on March 8. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence returned to nominal levels in the past 24 hours. Nominal levels are expected in the next 24 hours.

Solar wind speed near Earth as registered by DSCOVR varied between about 485 km/s and 600 km/s, with current values around 500 km/s. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) was predominantly oriented away from the Sun and its magnitude varied between about 2 and 8 nT. Bz was never below -5 nT. Solar wind conditions are expected to decrease gradually on March 8.

Quiet to unsettled conditions (K Dourbes between 1 and 3; NOAA Kp between 1 and 3) were registered in the past 24 hours. Active conditions (K Dourbes = 4) are possible on March 7 and 8, with a slight chance for minor storm intervals (K Dourbes = 5) on March 7. Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes < 4) are expected on March 9, with a chance for active intervals.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 021, за даними 23 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 06 Mar 2021

Число Вольфа, Катанія	///
Сонячний потік 10 см	077
AK Chambon La Forêt	017
AK Wingst	017
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	018
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	005 - За даними 31 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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