Перегляд архіву четвер, 11 березня 2021

Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2021 Mar 11 1230 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Геомагнетизм

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10 см потік	Ap
11 Mar 2021	077	008
12 Mar 2021	076	010
13 Mar 2021	076	026

Бюлетень

The Catania group 78 (NOAA 2808) remained quiet in the last 24 hours as it produced only a weak B flare. It is expected to continue at this level of activity in the next 24 hours as it appears to be in a decaying phase. The newly emerged Catania group 79 is still in an early stage of development and is not expected to have any activity beyond B-level.

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been observed in coronagraph data.

The low latitude corona hole of negative polarity in the southern hemisphere has now crossed the central solar meridian.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux peaked over the 1000 pfu event threshold during its diurnal maximum and may do so again today. The 24h electron fluence reached moderate levels and is expected to drop slowly over the next days.

The solar wind continued to decline and it will remain under slow conditions until the arrival of the boundary crossing late on the 12th March (at the earliest), or the 13th March (most likely). The solar wind speed is below 400 km/s and is expected to slowly continue the decline in the next 24 hours. From 13th March onwards the anticipated boundary crossing and the high speed stream expected afterward will likely increase the magnetic field strength and the solar wind speed to above 500 km/s.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (NOAA Kp: 0-2, local K Dourbes had values 0-3) . They are expected to remain quiet to unsettled for the next 24 hours. An increase to unsettled to active conditions is expected afterwards due to the expected sector boundary crossing and enhanced solar wind conditions.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 022, за даними 11 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 10 Mar 2021

Число Вольфа, Катанія	022
Сонячний потік 10 см	079
AK Chambon La Forêt	005
AK Wingst	001
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	002
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	015 - За даними 21 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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