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Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2021 May 28 1230 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10 см потік	Ap
28 May 2021	082	009
29 May 2021	080	008
30 May 2021	080	004

Бюлетень

The Sun has released two C flares during the past 24 hours. The brightest flare was a C7.6 flare produced by beta-gamma region NOAA 2824, peaking at 23:15 UT on May 27. The chance for a C flare in the next 24 hours is estimated at 80%, while the chance for an M flare is estimated at 15%.

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraphic imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours.

The solar wind speed as registered by DSCOVR varied between about 390 km/s and 455 km/s in the past 24 hours, with current values around 440 km/s. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) was oriented away from the Sun and its magnitude varied between about 5 and 10 nT. Bz was never below -5 nT for extended intervals. Solar wind conditions are expected to gradually decline on May 28-29.

Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes between 1 and 3; NOAA Kp between 0 and 3) were registered in the past 24 hours. Active geomagnetic intervals (K Dourbes = 4) are possible on May 28 and 29, with a slight chance for minor storm geomagnetic levels (K Dourbes = 5) on May 28. Quiet to unsettled levels (K Dourbes < 4) are expected on May 30.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 029, за даними 23 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 27 May 2021

Число Вольфа, Катанія	///
Сонячний потік 10 см	083
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	018
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	019
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	039 - За даними 29 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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