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Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2021 Jul 12 1231 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Геомагнетизм

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10 см потік	Ap
12 Jul 2021	075	025
13 Jul 2021	077	017
14 Jul 2021	080	007

Бюлетень

Solar activity was at very low levels. NOAA Active Region (AR) 2841 (Catania sunspot group 16) produced a B-class flare, while the larger NOAA AR 2842 (Catania sunspot group 17) did not produce any noticeable activity. Solar activity is expected to be very low over the next 24 hours with a low probability of a C-class flare.

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold and is expected to remain below this level during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so.

The solar wind speed decreased in the last 24 hours from 370 km/s to 290 km/s. The total magnetic field varied between 1 and 6 nT. The Bz varied between -4 and 5 nT and it was predominantly negative. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominantly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun). The solar wind speed and magnetic field are expected to become enhanced in the next 24 hours. This is because of the expected arrival of the High Speed Stream (HSS) associated with the patchy negative polarity Coronal Hole (CH) that began to cross the central meridian on July 09.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet globally (NOAA Kp 1) and quiet to unsettle locally (K Dourbes 1-3) over the past 24 hours. They are expected to become active in the next 24 hours, with minor storm conditions possible, due to the arrival of the aforementioned HSS.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 021, за даними 14 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 11 Jul 2021

Число Вольфа, Катанія	///
Сонячний потік 10 см	074
AK Chambon La Forêt	010
AK Wingst	004
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	004
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	022 - За даними 23 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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