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Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2021 Aug 03 1231 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Геомагнетизм

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10 см потік	Ap
03 Aug 2021	076	008
04 Aug 2021	077	007
05 Aug 2021	077	007

Бюлетень

The new beta region that appeared on August 2 (NOAA number 2850) has shown further development, with a penumbra surrounding the leading spot. The Sun has not produced any flares above low B level in the past 24 hours. The chance for a C flare in the next 24 hours is estimated at 15%.

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraphic imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours.

The solar wind speed near Earth as registered by DSCOVR decreased over the past 24 hours from about 400 to 330 km/s. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) was oriented predominantly towards the Sun, and its magnitude varied between about 2 and 14 nT, with current values around 7 nT. Bz was often below -5 nT between about 12:00 and 19:00 UT and between about 21:00 and 21:30 UT on August 2, with a minimum around -13 nT around 18:00 UT. A nominal solar wind regime is expected in the next 24 hours.

Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes between 2 and 4; NOAA Kp between 2 and 5) were registered in the past 24 hours. Quiet to unsettled levels (K Dourbes < 4) are expected on August 3, 4 and 5.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 016, за даними 24 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 02 Aug 2021

Число Вольфа, Катанія	012
Сонячний потік 10 см	075
AK Chambon La Forêt	032
AK Wingst	014
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	015
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	012 - За даними 31 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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