Перегляд архіву середа, 25 серпня 2021

Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2021 Aug 25 1232 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Геомагнетизм

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10 см потік	Ap
25 Aug 2021	082	012
26 Aug 2021	081	013
27 Aug 2021	081	013

Бюлетень

There are presently two named sunspot groups observed on the visible side of the Sun, Catania sunspot group 33 (NOAA AR 2859) and Catania group 32 (NOAA AR 2860) that just rotated across the East solar limb. Both of these sunspot groups were sources of a few low C-class and B-class flares which were associated with narrow CMEs. The newly arrived data show that the CME associated with a large filament eruption, and first observed in the SOHO/LASCO C2 field of view at 06:36 UT on August 24 had velocity of about 450 km/s and the angular width of about 100 degrees. Glancing blow associated with that CME is possible (in August 28) but not very probable.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is at the background levels, the greater than 2 MeV electron flux is bellow the 1000 pfu threshold and the 24h electron fluence is at normal level. We do not expect significant change in the values of these three parameters in the coming hours.

Early this morning the increase of the interplanetary magnetic field magnitude was observed (up to 9nT) simultaneously with the solar wind speed (up to 400 km/s) and the temperature increase. It is possible that this is the compression region in front of the expected fast solar wind, originating from the northern polar coronal hole extension. However, the interplanetary magnetic field magnitude already decreased to value of 5 nT and the solar wind velocity is about 360 km/s. Two small positive polarity coronal holes (one equatorial and second centered around 30 degrees on the Southern solar hemisphere) crossed central meridian in the early morning of August 24. The associated solar wind can be expected at Earth late tomorrow or in the morning of August 27. During last 24 hours the geomagnetic conditions continued to be at quiet to unsettled level. We expect such a geomagnetic conditions to prevail in the coming hours. However, the arrival of the solar wind from the coronal hole followed by the expected arrival of the halo CME in the afternoon or in the evening of August 26 could induce active geomagnetic conditions.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 031, за даними 23 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 24 Aug 2021

Число Вольфа, Катанія	027
Сонячний потік 10 см	081
AK Chambon La Forêt	012
AK Wingst	007
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	005
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	018 - За даними 33 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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