Перегляд архіву понеділок, 11 жовтня 2021

Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2021 Oct 11 1231 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10 см потік	Ap
11 Oct 2021	084	013
12 Oct 2021	083	032
13 Oct 2021	082	022

Бюлетень

NOAA region 2883 produced a C2.3 flare peaking at 23:02 UT on October 10. The chance for a C flare in the next 24 hours is estimated at 50%, with a slight chance for an M flare from NOAA 2882.

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraphic imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours.

The solar wind speed as registered by DSCOVR increased from about 300 to about 400 km/s in the past 24 hours. The magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field near Earth (IMF) varied between about 1 nT and 12 nT, while its orientation was variable but predominantly away from the Sun. Bz was often below -5 nT. Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to start upon the predicted arrival of the October 9 CME, in the second half of October 11 or early on October 12. A high speed stream from a positive polarity equatorial coronal hole is expected to arrive at Earth on October 12. The enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to persist through October 12 and 13.

Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes between 2 and 4; NOAA Kp between 2 and 4) were registered in the past 24 hours. Active to minor storm levels (K Dourbes = 4-5) are possible on October 11, 12 and 13, with a chance for moderate storm intervals (K Dourbes = 6) on October 11 and 12.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 029, за даними 17 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 10 Oct 2021

Число Вольфа, Катанія	///
Сонячний потік 10 см	085
AK Chambon La Forêt	///
AK Wingst	///
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	010
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	038 - За даними 25 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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