Перегляд архіву четвер, 14 жовтня 2021

Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2021 Oct 14 1231 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10 см потік	Ap
14 Oct 2021	084	007
15 Oct 2021	084	013
16 Oct 2021	084	015

Бюлетень

The Sun produced four low C flares in the past 24 hours, mainly from new beta region NOAA 2885. The brightest flare was a C2.2 flare produced by region 2885, which peaked at 01:34 UT on October 14. The chance for a C flare in the next 24 hours is estimated at 65%, with a slight chance for an M flare, especially from region 2885.

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraphic imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux and the greater than 2 MeV electron fluence were at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and can both increase to moderate levels in the next 24 hours as a response to the ICME which arrived on October 12.

The solar wind speed as registered by DSCOVR decreased from about 425 to 375 km/s in the past 24 hours. The magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) varied between about 2 and 6 nT, and IMF orientation was variable. Bz was never below -5 nT. A further decrease of solar wind speed is expected on October 14 and the first half of October 15. A high speed stream from a negative polarity equatorial coronal hole may arrive at Earth in the second half of October 15 or on October 16, leading to enhanced solar wind levels.

Quiet conditions (K Dourbes between 1 and 2; NOAA Kp between 0 and 2) were registered in the past 24 hours. Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes < 4) are expected on October 14 and in the first half of October 15. In the second half of October 15 and on October 16, active intervals (K Dourbes = 4) are possible due to the possible arrival of a high speed stream from a negative polarity equatorial coronal hole, with a slight chance for minor storm intervals (K Dourbes = 5).

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 021, за даними 13 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 13 Oct 2021

Число Вольфа, Катанія	026
Сонячний потік 10 см	084
AK Chambon La Forêt	///
AK Wingst	///
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	006
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	018 - За даними 26 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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