Перегляд архіву неділя, 17 жовтня 2021

Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2021 Oct 17 1231 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Геомагнетизм

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10 см потік	Ap
17 Oct 2021	079	007
18 Oct 2021	080	016
19 Oct 2021	080	019

Бюлетень

The Sun did not produce any C flares in the past 24 hours. The chance for a C flare in the next 24 hours is estimated at 15%.

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraphic imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours.

The solar wind speed as registered by DSCOVR varied between about 345 and 420 km/s in the past 24 hours, with current values around 350 km/s. The Interplanetary Field (IMF) was oriented away from the Sun and its magnitude varied between about 4 and 10 nT, with current values around 9 nT. Bz has been below -5 nT from 8:20 UT on October 17 until now, with a minimum around -8 nT. Nominal solar wind levels are expected on October 17 and the first half of October 18. In the second half of October 18, a high speed stream from a positive polarity coronal hole is expected to arrive near Earth, which will likely lead to enhanced solar wind levels in the second half of October 18 and on October 19. Late on October 19 or on October 20, the Earth may encounter the high speed stream from an extension of the (negative polarity) South polar crown coronal hole.

Quiet geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes between 0 and 2; NOAA Kp between 0 and 3) were registered in the past 24 hours. On October 17 and in the first half of October 18, quiet to unsettled geomagnetic levels (K Dourbes < 4) are expected. Active intervals (K Dourbes = 4) are possible in the second half of October 18 and on October 19, due to the expected arrival of a high speed stream from a positive polarity coronal hole, with a slight chance for minor storm intervals (K Dourbes = 5).

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 000, за даними 18 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 16 Oct 2021

Число Вольфа, Катанія	///
Сонячний потік 10 см	078
AK Chambon La Forêt	///
AK Wingst	///
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	///
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	011 - За даними 29 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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